Scotiabank Economic Forecast for July 2026

This document is a technical report providing the Scotiabank economic forecast as of July 13, 2026. It outlines the current economic conditions in Canada and the United States, emphasizing inflationary pressures and central bank responses. The report indicates that the Canadian economy is beginning to recover from a soft patch, with GDP growth expected to average 0.9% in 2026 and strengthen to 2.2% in 2027. It notes that inflation risks remain elevated, prompting caution from the Bank of Canada. In the United States, economic activity shows resilience despite a moderation in household demand, with inflation surprising to the upside. The report also discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices and the potential risks associated with U.S. fiscal policy and CUSMA negotiations. Overall, the document presents a comprehensive view of the economic landscape and the anticipated trends in both countries.