Inflation Handbook on Food Prices for 2023 and 2024

This document is a technical report that discusses the trends in food prices, focusing on disinflation in 2023 and stabilization expected in 2024. It outlines the significant factors influencing food prices, including fertilizer costs, farmland prices, and the relationship between food prices at home and away from home. The report indicates that fertilizer prices have decreased significantly, suggesting further disinflation in food prices over the next six months. It also notes that farmland prices have stabilized, which may prevent further deflationary pressure on food prices. The report analyzes the dynamics between grocery and restaurant food prices, predicting a decrease in restaurant prices as grocery prices decline. Additionally, it forecasts that overall food inflation will decelerate to 2.5% by the end of 2023 and further to 2.1% by May 2024, aligning with pre-Covid inflation rates. The document includes various data sources and statistical analyses to support its findings.