Global Economic Outlook for H2-2026

This report presents the Global Focus – Economic Outlook for the second half of 2026, published by Standard Chartered Global Research. It outlines the resilience of the global economy and financial markets observed in the first half of the year, while also addressing the challenges ahead. The report revises the global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.0%, down from 3.4%, primarily due to conflicts in the Middle East. The analysis indicates that while growth is expected to stabilize in H2, several risks remain, including the volatile US-Iran situation and ongoing tariff concerns. The report highlights the uneven performance across sectors, particularly noting the impact of AI-related demand on growth. It discusses the implications of US import tariffs and their potential effects on trade dynamics. The document also considers the long-term outlook for major economies, including the US, euro-area, and China, emphasizing the need for policymakers to navigate the complexities of growth, inflation, and geopolitical tensions.