The AI Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk

This paper is a research article that examines the dual nature of advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), which can drive economic growth while simultaneously posing existential risks. It discusses the potential of AI to enhance innovation and living standards, comparing its impact to that of electricity and the internet. However, the paper also highlights concerns from experts regarding the possibility of a superintelligent AI misaligned with human values, which could lead to catastrophic outcomes. The author outlines the conditions under which the rapid progress of AI should be pursued or halted, emphasizing that the answers depend on parameters that are difficult to quantify. The article develops models to illustrate the economic forces at play, including the importance of utility curvature in assessing existential risk versus consumption gains. It concludes by suggesting that while AI may significantly benefit society, it also carries risks that could surpass those associated with nuclear weapons, necessitating careful consideration of its development and deployment.