Global Trade Disrupted: Early Impacts of U.S. Tariffs

This report provides an analysis of the early impacts of U.S. tariffs on global trade as of November 2025. It outlines the significant increase in U.S. effective tariff rates, which rose from under 5% in 2024 to approximately 17% in 2025. The report details how these tariffs have affected trade balances with major partners such as China, the EU, and Canada, leading to a modest narrowing of trade deficits with these countries. However, the overall trade deficit remains largely unchanged due to increased deficits with other nations. The document also discusses the volatility in U.S. trade data resulting from a rush to import goods ahead of tariffs and highlights shifts in China's export strategies towards other markets. The report concludes by noting the ongoing adjustments in global trade dynamics and the uncertainty regarding the sustainability of these changes, emphasizing the need for continued observation of trade patterns in the coming year.