Summary
This technical report presents the Provincial Housing Market Outlook for 2026, detailing significant downgrades in forecasts for Canadian home resales and price growth. The report indicates that weaker-than-expected performances in late 2025 and early 2026 have influenced these revisions. Factors such as severe weather, a subdued economy, and cost of living pressures are noted as constraints on housing activity. The report outlines that interest rates are expected to remain neutral, with no major changes anticipated from the Bank of Canada. A decline in population in Ontario and British Columbia is highlighted, alongside the contrasting population growth in Alberta, which is supported by immigration. The report further discusses the varying conditions across provinces, with Ontario and B.C. experiencing the sharpest downgrades. It concludes with insights into future trends, including potential impacts from oil prices and interprovincial migration on housing demand and prices across Canada.
