U.S. Automotive Outlook 2026 Energy Price Impact

This report outlines the U.S. automotive industry's performance and outlook for 2026, highlighting the effects of rising energy prices and ongoing tariff policies. In 2025, the industry experienced a 2.2% increase in sales, reaching a post-pandemic high, but faced volatility due to tariffs and the expiration of electric vehicle subsidies. The report notes that gasoline prices have surged above $4 per gallon, significantly impacting consumer behavior and potentially leading to a decline in vehicle sales in 2026, projected at 16 million units. The document details the interplay between energy prices, consumer sensitivity, and the automotive market, emphasizing that sustained high energy costs could hinder demand, particularly for less fuel-efficient vehicles. Additionally, it discusses the implications of tariff policies on production costs and vehicle pricing, suggesting that the industry may face challenges from both energy price shocks and trade policy uncertainties as it navigates the upcoming year.