Consequences of Low First-Year GPA on College Outcomes

This research article examines the impact of low first-year grade point averages (FYGPA) on subsequent college outcomes, specifically focusing on graduation rates and fourth-year cumulative GPAs (CGPA). The study analyzes data from 97,282 students across 73 four-year institutions, particularly those with FYGPAs between 2.00 and 2.99, referred to as the 'murky middle.' The findings indicate that only 48% of students with FYGPAs between 2.50 and 2.99 graduated within four years, and just 45% achieved a fourth-year CGPA of 3.00 or higher. In contrast, students with FYGPAs between 2.00 and 2.49 had graduation rates of 28% and only 18% attained a CGPA of 3.00 or higher. The study also highlights the demographic characteristics of these students, noting that they are often first-generation college students and underrepresented minorities. Logistic regression analyses further reveal low probabilities of graduating and achieving competitive GPAs for students with low but acceptable FYGPAs, underscoring the need for early identification and academic support initiatives.