Using SAT Math Scores to Identify Risk of Low Performance

This research article examines the relationship between SAT Math scores and the risk of students earning a D, F, or withdrawing (DFW) from first-year college math courses. It specifically investigates whether SAT Math scores provide significant information for identifying at-risk students and how this informational value has changed from a pre-pandemic cohort in 2018 to a post-pandemic cohort in 2023. The study utilizes data from 57 diverse four-year institutions, employing standardized mean differences and logistic regression models to predict DFW outcomes based on SAT Math scores and high school GPA (HSGPA). Findings indicate that SAT Math scores effectively differentiate students at risk of poor performance, with increased differentiation noted in 2023, especially at more selective institutions. The research underscores the importance of SAT Math scores as a tool for early academic support and suggests that these scores may play a crucial role in enrollment management processes, particularly in test-optional admission contexts.