Cow-Calf Retained Ownership Analysis and Price Forecasting

This technical report discusses the decision-making process for cow-calf producers regarding whether to sell calves at weaning or retain ownership through a backgrounding phase. It outlines the uncertainties associated with cattle pricing and introduces a web-based decision-support tool designed to assist producers in analyzing potential returns and risks associated with retained ownership alternatives. The report explains various methods for forecasting cattle prices, emphasizing the use of futures market data and historical basis information to improve accuracy. It details how the decision-support tool can help producers input relevant data, such as cattle weights and transportation costs, to simulate market scenarios and predict net returns. Additionally, the report provides practical examples of using the tool to forecast prices and assess the financial implications of different retained ownership strategies. Overall, the document serves as a resource for cattle producers to make informed decisions about retained ownership.