Predicting Alfalfa Hay Prices in Western States

This technical report analyzes alfalfa hay prices across seven western states: Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Washington. It outlines the lack of consistent market price reporting for alfalfa hay, particularly in states like Arizona, Nevada, and Utah, where the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service does not provide weekly market reports. The report aims to compare alfalfa hay prices, identify factors influencing these prices, and introduce a web-based pricing tool for current and forecasted prices. The analysis includes historical price data from 2013 to 2022 and discusses correlations in pricing trends among states. Additionally, it examines how external factors such as corn prices, milk prices, and export levels affect alfalfa hay prices. The report also presents regression models that estimate the impact of these variables on price variability. Finally, it describes an online tool developed by Utah State University Extension for forecasting alfalfa hay prices based on user inputs and historical data.