Realized Collision Risk Assessment for LEO Satellites

This technical report presents simulation results that assess the inadequacy of the 'object-years' metric in effectively constraining the realized probability of collisions involving low-Earth orbit (LEO) constellations. The report contrasts this with the 'mass-object-years' metric, which demonstrates improved effectiveness in limiting realized collision risk. It argues that while a realized collision risk limit is beneficial, it is only a partial solution, as it does not account for future risks that could mislead stakeholders regarding total risk mitigation. The report outlines the necessity for a comprehensive regulatory framework that incorporates both realized and unrealized risks to ensure the long-term safety and sustainability of space utilization. Additionally, it discusses the implications of current metrics on satellite deployment strategies and highlights the need for a holistic approach to aggregate risk assessment in the evolving LEO environment. The report also references existing standards and practices related to orbital debris mitigation and collision risk management.