Assessing Drought Exposure in South Africa

This technical report examines the spatial patterns and temporal trends of drought exposure in South Africa. The study aims to assess the extent and distribution of the population affected by drought-related issues, both currently and in future projections. It employs three different methods to identify current drought-prone areas and analyze changes over time. The findings indicate that the western regions of South Africa, particularly the Northern Cape province, are currently experiencing the highest levels of drought. Projections suggest a moderate increase in drought conditions across most of the country from 2015 to 2050, with significant changes expected in the western regions and the northern part of Limpopo province. By 2100, the Western Cape, especially around Cape Town, is anticipated to face the largest increases in drought severity. This report contributes to understanding the dynamics of drought in South Africa and informs potential mitigation and adaptation strategies for the affected population.